Giant h/t to Stacy McCain, who some day may throw me some rule 2 love. Probably not. I should write more.
So, let's talk about the disastrous Republican Primary, because honestly Canadian politics is never less exciting than when we have a majority government (with a strong mandate, so the MTV voters can shut up). I had a conversation with my father about how Mitt Romney would be smart to pick Santorum as VP, and another conversation with my buddy Cezary over what the Republican party needs to do to regain some of the momentum they have squandered.
These conversations were very interesting, because if you analyze objectively where each of us falls on the scale, we actually cover a broad spectrum of American voters (despite two of us being Canadian). Cezary is a Chicago/Northeastern Democrat, with a background in finance and journalism. Dad is a retired army officer who owns a small business and does contract work for the Federal Government in Canada. He's Catholic, but not dogmatic, and drifts back and forth across various layers of social conservatism. In Canada, this makes him pretty solidly Tory, but down south he's an Independent. I am so conservative so as to make conservatives in Canada nervous, but not socially so. I also still care about things like winning elections, so I would be a solid Republican, though not of the Ron Paul variety.
All this to say, if you can get all three of us to agree to vote for you, we're a decent microcosm for winning a general election. Dad is convinced Romney is going to get the nomination, and I can't really muster any factual arguments to disagree. It seems Romney, while not being able to arouse the enthusiasm of the base still has a floor of support. He has not really dropped below 20 percent since he announced, which if you consider that there were between 5 and 7 candidates at any given time is cause for some satisfaction. Various other groups enjoyed bandwagon moments, rising and falling with the vagaries of a 24 hour news cycle.
Enter Rick Santorum. Written off from the start as an also-ran, most assumed he was going to be fighting with Jon Huntsman for a spot at the nominating convention. Most, but not Stacy McCain. I read his blog daily to get a feel for what people who are deeply religious and very southern feel and care about. I love southerners, I just can't get a solid grasp of their way of thinking, so I keep current by reading McCain. I have to say, for months now, McCain has been saying that people have deeply underestimated Santorum. I was tending to agree already, as from anecdotal evidence I have noticed a lot of SoCons don't really like answering polls. Just as in Canada, Liberals were shocked at a "sudden surge in Conservative support", Americans are now surprised at how well Santorum is doing. I believe it's because people who vote Conservative in Canada, and Santorum voters, are less inclined to answer polls. Response bias is a huge factor in polling, and as Stacy McCain likes to say "polls are not elections".
Back to Canada now: Dad and I, having a shared love of the political game, start wargaming potential mixes for the Republican ticket. Perry? No, another Texan with a case of Foot-in-Mouth Disease is the last thing the Republicans need. Bachmann? No, she blew it. She's now seen as the worst of the Tea Party tendencies (shrillness, lack of political savvy). However, if you tie Romney and Santorum together, you get an interesting combination. Romney is boring, true. RomneyCare offends the hell out of conservatives, true. Here's the thing, though. RomneyCare is legitimate where ObamaCare is not, as a State Legislature IS constitutionally allowed to make individual mandates. The Federal government is not. Now, before you tell me this is a wonkish argument that no one will buy, let me pre-empt: voters will believe it if Rick Santorum says it. Rick Santorum is a Catholic who has been married for 35 years to the same woman, has passed through the electoral grinder many times, and still comes out squeaky clean. He has a VERY photogenic family (his daughters being attractive and his sons clean-cut). Part of the reason he was written off was because he was seen as totally unthreatening. Mr. Rogers in the Senate so to speak.
This makes him very well suited to explaining unpopular policy and winning over independents, from a VP role.
Stay tuned for Cezary's take on it (and some pretty incisive condemnations of Congress).
So, let's talk about the disastrous Republican Primary, because honestly Canadian politics is never less exciting than when we have a majority government (with a strong mandate, so the MTV voters can shut up). I had a conversation with my father about how Mitt Romney would be smart to pick Santorum as VP, and another conversation with my buddy Cezary over what the Republican party needs to do to regain some of the momentum they have squandered.
These conversations were very interesting, because if you analyze objectively where each of us falls on the scale, we actually cover a broad spectrum of American voters (despite two of us being Canadian). Cezary is a Chicago/Northeastern Democrat, with a background in finance and journalism. Dad is a retired army officer who owns a small business and does contract work for the Federal Government in Canada. He's Catholic, but not dogmatic, and drifts back and forth across various layers of social conservatism. In Canada, this makes him pretty solidly Tory, but down south he's an Independent. I am so conservative so as to make conservatives in Canada nervous, but not socially so. I also still care about things like winning elections, so I would be a solid Republican, though not of the Ron Paul variety.
All this to say, if you can get all three of us to agree to vote for you, we're a decent microcosm for winning a general election. Dad is convinced Romney is going to get the nomination, and I can't really muster any factual arguments to disagree. It seems Romney, while not being able to arouse the enthusiasm of the base still has a floor of support. He has not really dropped below 20 percent since he announced, which if you consider that there were between 5 and 7 candidates at any given time is cause for some satisfaction. Various other groups enjoyed bandwagon moments, rising and falling with the vagaries of a 24 hour news cycle.
Enter Rick Santorum. Written off from the start as an also-ran, most assumed he was going to be fighting with Jon Huntsman for a spot at the nominating convention. Most, but not Stacy McCain. I read his blog daily to get a feel for what people who are deeply religious and very southern feel and care about. I love southerners, I just can't get a solid grasp of their way of thinking, so I keep current by reading McCain. I have to say, for months now, McCain has been saying that people have deeply underestimated Santorum. I was tending to agree already, as from anecdotal evidence I have noticed a lot of SoCons don't really like answering polls. Just as in Canada, Liberals were shocked at a "sudden surge in Conservative support", Americans are now surprised at how well Santorum is doing. I believe it's because people who vote Conservative in Canada, and Santorum voters, are less inclined to answer polls. Response bias is a huge factor in polling, and as Stacy McCain likes to say "polls are not elections".
Back to Canada now: Dad and I, having a shared love of the political game, start wargaming potential mixes for the Republican ticket. Perry? No, another Texan with a case of Foot-in-Mouth Disease is the last thing the Republicans need. Bachmann? No, she blew it. She's now seen as the worst of the Tea Party tendencies (shrillness, lack of political savvy). However, if you tie Romney and Santorum together, you get an interesting combination. Romney is boring, true. RomneyCare offends the hell out of conservatives, true. Here's the thing, though. RomneyCare is legitimate where ObamaCare is not, as a State Legislature IS constitutionally allowed to make individual mandates. The Federal government is not. Now, before you tell me this is a wonkish argument that no one will buy, let me pre-empt: voters will believe it if Rick Santorum says it. Rick Santorum is a Catholic who has been married for 35 years to the same woman, has passed through the electoral grinder many times, and still comes out squeaky clean. He has a VERY photogenic family (his daughters being attractive and his sons clean-cut). Part of the reason he was written off was because he was seen as totally unthreatening. Mr. Rogers in the Senate so to speak.
This makes him very well suited to explaining unpopular policy and winning over independents, from a VP role.
Stay tuned for Cezary's take on it (and some pretty incisive condemnations of Congress).
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